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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-13 04:45:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 610 WTNT45 KNHC 130245 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 Joyce still has subtropical characteristics. Although a small area of convection has recent developed near the storm's center, cloud tops are not particularly cold and the cyclone is still co-located with an upper-level low. The initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on a subtropical intensity estimate of 35-40 kt from TAFB. This could be generous estimate since a recent near-miss of the ASCAT instrument to the west of Joyce suggested that the winds may have decreased somewhat since earlier today. Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast. Just about all of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that some gradual strengthening is possible during the next day or two while Joyce continues to acquire tropical characteristics. By 72 h, the global and statistical models depict Joyce weakening due to a drastic increase in shear and a decrease in environmental humidity until it is absorbed into a larger mid-latitude trough around 96 h. The HWRF and HMON models show a very different solution where Joyce strengthens to hurricane strength despite the marginal environment. This scenario seems less likely at this time, so the NHC intensity forecast is just below the intensity consensus beyond 36 h. Joyce is caught in fairly light steering currents between strong ridges to its east and west, and the initial motion estimate is 220/5 kt. All of the global models forecast only a slow southwestward motion during the next couple of days, particularly as Hurricane Helene approaches from the southeast. Once Helene passes to the east, Joyce will likely quickly turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough before dissipating southwest of the Azores. The official track forecast is basically a blend of the previous advisory and the corrected consensus aids HCCA and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 34.1N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 33.5N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 32.9N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 14/1200Z 32.5N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 32.3N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 34.2N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 37.0N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-13 04:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 12 the center of Joyce was located near 34.1, -42.6 with movement SW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 2
2018-09-13 04:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 292 WTNT35 KNHC 130244 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 42.6W ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 42.6 West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow southwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. A turn toward the northeast with a rapid increase in forward motion is forecast to occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Joyce is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next day or so. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center, mainly to the northwest. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-09-13 04:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 293 FONT15 KNHC 130244 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-09-13 04:43:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 776 WTNT25 KNHC 130243 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 42.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 42.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.5N 43.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 43.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.3N 43.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 34.2N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 37.0N 33.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 42.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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