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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 24
2019-09-23 10:54:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230854 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Overnight the center of Jerry became partially exposed, a result of strong westerly shear. However, a new burst of very deep convection has recently formed and obscured the low-level center again. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is well supported by earlier ASCAT data, and another reconaissance mission is scheduled for this morning to take a closer look. The current shear is forecast to slightly weaken during the next few days as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters with drier air in the mid-levels. There will also be a mid-latitude trough that will be near Jerry in a day or so, but the evidence is piling up that the trough interaction will be a neutral or negative factor for the storm. The intensity forecast is held almost the same as the previous one, following the corrected- consensus guidance. The cyclone could be close to dissipating around day 5 due to continuation of the shear and cold water if the latest global models are correct, so the forecast is lowered at that time. Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt, and that general motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the northeast and then the east is forecast after that when the trough reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. There are some substantial speed differences in the models, partially due to the aforementioned trough interaction, but most of the models are still in agreement with the above scenario. The new forecast is close to the previous one, adjusted somewhat to the south at longer range. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 27.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 28.6N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 30.1N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 31.3N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 32.6N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 35.5N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 37.0N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-23 10:48:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:48:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:48:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2019-09-23 10:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 230847 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 17(25) 23(48) X(48) X(48) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-23 10:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Jerry was located near 27.8, -67.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 24
2019-09-23 10:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 230842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 67.7W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 67.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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