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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-21 22:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 212050 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 Jerry has become quite disorganized this afternoon. The low-level center is exposed to the northwest of a small area of persistent deep convection. The NOAA G-IV aircraft, which is flying a research mission in and around the tropical storm, measured a minimum pressure of 1004 mb with 17 kt of wind, implying that the minimum pressure of Jerry has increased since this morning. However, ASCAT data from a couple hours after an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane completed its mission into Jerry showed that the maximum winds were still 50-55 kt. The max winds are therefore conservatively held at 55 kt for this advisory. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast, and users should not focus on the 5 kt difference between a tropical storm and hurricane, especially at 72 h and beyond. Based on Jerry's disheveled appearance, significant strengthening does not seem imminent. That said, the HWRF and HMON forecast that the cyclone will quickly restrengthen tonight or tomorrow and become a hurricane again. If the shear decreases during the next 24 hours, that is possible, however SHIPS diagnostics suggest that will not happen. The NHC forecast instead follows the statistical guidance, and keeps Jerry in a more-or-less steady state through day 5. The cyclone is still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda next week, and there is still a distinct possibility that Jerry will re-gain hurricane strength at some point during the next 5 days. All of the models still show Jerry turning northward later today or on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge, and then turning northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This track will bring Jerry close to Bermuda by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The model spread has increased a little since the last advisory, but confidence in this scenario is still high. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted only slightly to the west and remains near the multi-model consensus through day 5. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on the island but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 23.0N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 25.8N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 27.0N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 28.5N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 31.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 35.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-21 22:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 21 the center of Jerry was located near 23.0, -65.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 18
2019-09-21 22:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 212049 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 65.8W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Jerry is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and then gradually accelerate northeastward early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast for the next several days, but short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft which is currently flying a research mission around Jerry. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2019-09-21 22:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 212049 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 24(66) 1(67) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27) X(27) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 18
2019-09-21 22:49:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 212049 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.8W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.8W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 65.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.8N 67.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.0N 67.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 67.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 35.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 65.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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