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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 48A
2018-10-11 13:44:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111144 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 48A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 500 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 119.3W ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 119.3 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northeastward motion with a continued increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach mainland Mexico by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in the Southern Plains. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by tonight. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch area tonight or early Friday. These winds could reach the coast of mainland Mexico by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-11 10:39:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 08:39:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 08:39:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 48
2018-10-11 10:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110837 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Sergio's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours, and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB haven't changed either. A partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass revealed numerous 45-kt winds and a 50-kt northerly wind in the coldest cloud tops of the curved band wrapping around the north portion of the circulation. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged. A combination of increasing southwesterly shear, a drier and more stable surrounding environment, and slightly cooler oceanic temperatures should influence some weakening as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. The cyclone is expected to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday. Afterward, rapid weakening, and ultimately dissipation, is expected after Sergio makes its second landfall along the coast of the mainland Mexico. A 72 hour post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent the inland motion of Sergio. The intensity forecast is once again based on the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models, which show Sergio making landfall Friday as a tropical storm. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/15 kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a mid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue moving in this general motion through the entire 72 hour period with a continued increase in forward speed. Sergio will be approaching the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although the tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance and is close to the multi-model consensus aids. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 21.0N 120.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 28.4N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/0600Z 35.3N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48
2018-10-11 10:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110836 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 13(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) P ABREOJOS 34 X 30(30) 46(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) P ABREOJOS 50 X 3( 3) 31(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 19(19) 22(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUAYMAS 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 4 78(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 25N 115W 50 X 45(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 25N 115W 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 120W 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-11 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 the center of Sergio was located near 21.0, -120.2 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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