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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 47

2018-10-11 04:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110239 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 270SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 113.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 109.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.4N 98.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 121.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics

2018-10-11 01:54:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 23:54:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 21:40:25 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-11 01:51:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO HEADED TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 the center of Sergio was located near 19.7, -122.1 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 46A

2018-10-11 01:51:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102351 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 46A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 500 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...SERGIO HEADED TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 122.1W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. A tropical storm warning may be required for a portion of the watch area later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 122.1 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach mainland Mexico late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely tonight and Thursday, but gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days. Sergio is forecast to reach the Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas by Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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