je.st

Home › sergio

Tag: sergio

Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45

2018-10-10 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 101444 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) X(36) X(36) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 25(26) 33(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 27 48(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 120W 50 1 28(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 120W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number speed wind storm

Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-10 16:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 the center of Sergio was located near 18.4, -123.5 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical sergio

Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 45

2018-10-10 16:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 101444 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 124.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 121.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 123.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 45

2018-10-10 16:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 101444 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 123.5W ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 123.5 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northeastward motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach mainland Mexico late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, heavy rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number public storm advisory