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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-09 10:40:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 08:40:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 09:34:33 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 40
2018-10-09 10:38:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090838 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Sergio's cloud pattern has changed little in the past 6 hours and is comprised of a fragmented, large outer ring, about 100 n mi in diameter. The coldest cloud tops are now confined to just the southeast portion of cyclone's circulation. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial intensity at 75 kt. Some slow weakening, or possibly very little change in strength, is expected during the next 36 hours as Sergio traverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures and remains in a low shear surrounding environment. Afterward, the cyclone should enter a region of much cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should influence significant weakening and reducing Sergio to a tropical storm prior to landfall. Sergio is forecast to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday. At the end of the forecast period, Sergio is expected to further degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States. The intensity forecast is weighed heavily on the NOAA-HCCA and the GFS and ECMWF global models which show Sergio making landfall as a tropical storm. Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and portions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/5 kt. Sergio should begin accelerating in the aforementioned direction this morning, and approach the central Baja California peninsula in about 3 days. There is high confidence in the forecast track as the available global and regional models are clustered tightly together through day 5. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance cluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.3N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.7N 127.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.8N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 25.1N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 30.0N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 14/0600Z 36.3N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2018-10-09 10:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090837 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 28(39) 1(40) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 7(52) X(52) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 50(57) 8(65) X(65) X(65) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 7 8(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 125W 34 3 8(11) 19(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 130W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-09 10:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO FINALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 9 the center of Sergio was located near 16.3, -127.9 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 40
2018-10-09 10:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...SERGIO FINALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 127.9W ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Sergio. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 127.9 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next several days with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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