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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-08 04:37:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 02:37:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 02:37:17 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 35
2018-10-08 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080236 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Sergio still has its annular-like structure, but the surrounding convection is not as strong as earlier today. Dvorak objective and subjective numbers only support 80 kt at this time. Little significant change in strength is anticipated during the next 12 to 24 hours while the waters are still relatively warm. In about 2 days, the cyclone should encounter cooler waters, and a weakening trend at a faster rate is anticipated. Sergio is forecast to be a tropical storm by the time it is approaching the Baja California peninsula. Sergio is currently embedded within light steering currents and is barely moving toward the northwest at 3 kt. A northward drift is expected during the next 24 hours, but after that time, a broad mid-level trough is forecast to amplify over the west coast of the U.S., and this flow pattern should force Sergio to recurve northeastward with increasing forward speed. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, basically on top of each other for the next 3 days, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. Beyond 3 days, models are in less agreement, but still bring the cyclone very near the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in 4 days or so. The NHC forecast is not very different from the previous one and is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 14.9N 127.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 25.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 32.0N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2018-10-08 04:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080235 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 5(30) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 13(43) X(43) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 5 5(10) 5(15) 6(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 26(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 49 8(57) 2(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 130W 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-08 04:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO BARELY MOVING BUT FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Oct 7 the center of Sergio was located near 14.9, -127.9 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 35
2018-10-08 04:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...SERGIO BARELY MOVING BUT FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 127.9W ABOUT 1295 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 127.9 West. Sergio is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the northeast is anticipated by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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