je.st
news
Tag: sergio
Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2018-10-07 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072033 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) X(36) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 125W 34 8 4(12) 5(17) 6(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 125W 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 33(42) 1(43) X(43) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 42 15(57) 4(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 15N 130W 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
speed
wind
sergio
Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 34
2018-10-07 22:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072032 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 127.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 85 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 127.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 127.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 127.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
sergio
Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-07 16:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 14:39:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 14:39:43 GMT
Tags: graphics
sergio
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 33
2018-10-07 16:38:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071437 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Somewhat quickly and unexpectedly, Sergio took on the appearance of an annular hurricane overnight. The eye of the hurricane expanded, nearly doubling in size (now 70 n mi across), and most of the banding features disappeared. However, IR imagery over the past hour or two indicates that the hurricane is still somewhat asymmetrical, suggesting that the hurricane may not have a classical annular structure, at least not yet. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt, in agreement with the latest current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane continues to move due west with an initial forward speed of 7 kt. Sergio is still expected to slow down and turn first northward, and then northeastward over the next couple of days. By mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough moving southward off coast of California should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward toward the Baja California peninsula. The global models remain in fairly good agreement on the track of the cyclone through the middle of next week, and only small changes were made to the NHC track forecast to move it closer to the model consensus. As long as Sergio can maintain its annular-like structure, only slow weakening is anticipated due to continued effects of ocean upwelling combined with the slow forward motion of the hurricane. By the end of the forecast period, Sergio will be moving over much cooler SSTs located west of the Baja California peninsula, and a faster weakening rate is forecast. Given the lower initial intensity of Sergio, the official intensity forecast is a little lower for the first two days of the forecast, but is very similar beyond that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.5N 126.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.2N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.7N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
sergio
Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2018-10-07 16:37:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 071437 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 2(41) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 32(38) 4(42) X(42) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 21 24(45) 10(55) 2(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) 15N 130W 50 2 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
speed
wind
sergio
Sites : [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] next »