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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-07 16:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO A LITTLE WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 7 the center of Sergio was located near 14.5, -126.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 33
2018-10-07 16:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...SERGIO A LITTLE WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 126.8W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 126.8 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). Sergio is expected to slow down and turn northward by tonight, and then turn northeastward on Monday. A faster northeastward motion is anticipated by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected over the next few days, but Sergio is forecast to remain a hurricane into mid-week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 33
2018-10-07 16:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 071436 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.8W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.8W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.2N 128.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.7N 127.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 126.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-07 10:54:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 08:54:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 08:54:33 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 32
2018-10-07 10:53:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070852 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Sergio appears to have lost some strength during the past several hours. Deep convection has decreased in intensity, and the eye appears larger and more ragged in recent satellite images. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 100 kt, which is near the upper end of the satellite intensity estimates, and this could be a little generous. The hurricane is still moving westward at about 7 kt, and a slow westward or west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 12 hours. The steering currents are expected to weaken later today, and Sergio will likely drift northwestward and northward tonight and Monday. After that time, a large trough over the southwestern United States is expected to cause Sergio to move toward the northeast with increasing forward speed. The track models are tightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. The predicted slow motion of the tropical cyclone during the next couple of days will likely cause ocean upwelling, which could result in continued slow weakening in the short term. In the longer range, the models show Sergio moving into an atmospheric environment of drier air and stronger shear and over waters cooler than 26 deg C, which should continue the weakening trend or even accelerate it. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and it is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 126.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 14.7N 127.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 15.0N 127.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.5N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 26.6N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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