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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-07 10:52:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 7 the center of Sergio was located near 14.6, -126.1 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 32

2018-10-07 10:52:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 070851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...SERGIO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 126.1W ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 126.1 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. The hurricane is forecast to slow down and make a sharp northeastward turn on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 32

2018-10-07 10:52:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 070851 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.7N 127.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 127.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.5N 124.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.6N 114.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 126.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 31

2018-10-07 05:01:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070301 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 Little overall change has been noted in Sergio's satellite presentation the past several hours other than cloud tops have warmed slightly. The 30-nmi-wide eye remains quite distinct and outflow is still very impressive in all quadrants. However, he warming tops have resulted in slightly lower satellite intensity estimates from all agencies, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 105 kt for this advisory. Sergio is lumbering along toward the west, or 270/06 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Sergio should continue to move slowly westward around the southwestern periphery of a weak deep-layer ridge for the next day or so. By early next week, a strong trough is forecast to dig southward off the coasts of California and Baja California, which will erode the ridge and cause Sergio to make a sharp northeastward turn and accelerate throughout the forecast period. The latest NHC track guidance remains in good agreement on this developing steering flow pattern, and there is very little cross-track spread in the models. The speed differences noted in the previous discussion have decreased on this forecast cycle, so only minor tweaks had to be made to the previous advisory track. The new forecast track lies close the previous one and near a blend of the various consensus track models. Ocean temperatures beneath the cyclone are forecast to decrease over the next few days due to cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, so gradual weakening is expected for the next 3 days. After that, more rapid weakening is forecast due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of a a deep-layer trough. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 125.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 15.4N 127.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 20.9N 120.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.6N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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