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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 24
2018-10-05 10:53:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050853 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018 ...SERGIO TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 121.2W ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 121.2 West. Sergio is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west and west-southwest at a similar speed is expected during the next 24 hours. Sergio should then turn back to the west and northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Sergio is expected to remain a hurricane through the middle of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 24
2018-10-05 10:53:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050853 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 120SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.4N 125.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.3N 126.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 121.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-05 04:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 02:33:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 02:33:46 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-10-05 04:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 Sergio's cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat since the previous advisory, with cloud tops warming and the eye becoming more ragged and less distinct. The initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt based on a blend of the latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates. Sergio is expected to steadily weaken for the next 48 hours while moving into a drier and more stable environment. By then, most of the guidance suggests little change from 48-72 hours before the shear increases by the end of the period and SSTs cool to between 26C and 27C, which should again result in weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the observed weakening and the trend in the guidance, but is similar after that time. This prediction is close to or a bit above the latest HCCA intensity consensus aid. Sergio has turned toward the left during the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate now 305/07. A mid-level ridge building to the northwest of Sergio will steer the hurricane toward the west and even toward the west-southwest during the next 36 to 48 hours. After that time, an amplifying longwave trough over western North America will erode the ridge and cause Sergio to recurve, with a faster northeastward motion shown by day 5. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one from 24 to 48 hours, following the trend of the latest consensus aids, which are showing a more equatorward motion during this time. At days 3 through 5, the NHC track is largely an update of the previous one, and lies between the faster GFS and the slower ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.9N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 15.6N 123.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 16.0N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2018-10-05 04:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050232 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 15N 125W 34 2 11(13) 46(59) 28(87) 5(92) 2(94) X(94) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 33(46) 11(57) 3(60) X(60) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 9(32) 1(33) X(33) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 11(23) 27(50) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 11(24) 1(25) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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