je.st
news
Tag: sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-09-30 16:59:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 14:59:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 14:59:21 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-09-30 16:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 200 WTPZ41 KNHC 301457 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Recent microwave data indicate that the inner core of Sergio continues to become better defined, with an eye-like feature evident. However, this eye feature is not yet apparent in geostationary satellite imagery. Deep convection with cloud top temperatures of -70 C are concentrated around the storm's center as well as along a prominent banding feature on the south side. The average of available satellite intensity estimates support an intensity of 50 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 270/11 kt. There continues to be no significant changes in the forecast track philosophy from the previous few forecasts. For the next couple of days, Sergio should move generally westward or just south of due west around the southern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends from Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific. By 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough will move southeastward along and offshore the western U.S., which will erode the ridge from the west. This will allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward then northwestward from 48- to 96-hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Thereafter, the trough should shift eastward and low- to mid-level ridging should build to the northwest of the cyclone. This pattern change should induce a more westward turn toward the end of the forecast period. Sergio will remain in an environment of low-shear, high-moisture, and over warm waters for the next 24 hours or so, which should result in rapid intensification. This is in agreement with rapid intensification indices from the SHIPS model of 40 to 45 percent over the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, northeasterly shear is expected to develop over the storm environment and increase to 25 kt by 48 hours. This should at least limit the rate of intensification if not weaken the cyclone slightly from 48- to 72-hours. After that time, global models indicate that the shear will lessen to under 10 kt by 96 hours, but by that time the system will be moving over waters of 26-27 C very near a gradient of cooler SSTs just to the north. Based on this, the intensity remains steady from 72- to 96-hours and then shows slow weakening by the end of the period. The intensity forecast is a little higher that the previous advisory, and is close to the dynamical model consensus. Based on this intensity forecast, Sergio is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 12.1N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 12.1N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 11.8N 109.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 11.7N 111.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 12.0N 113.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 13.6N 116.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 16.0N 119.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-09-30 16:57:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 718 FOPZ11 KNHC 301457 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 10 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 105W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CLIPPERTON IS 34 4 37(41) 15(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 110W 34 3 15(18) 25(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) 10N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 110W 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 13(27) 2(29) X(29) 10N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 10N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 36(44) 6(50) 2(52) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 41(48) 9(57) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-09-30 16:57:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 the center of Sergio was located near 12.1, -105.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 5
2018-09-30 16:57:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 658 WTPZ31 KNHC 301457 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 ...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 105.4W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 105.4 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days with a turn toward the west-northwest expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Sergio is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] next »