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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-10-03 22:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 032038 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.3W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.3W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.4N 42.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 45.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 41.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 44
2021-10-03 16:46:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 031446 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 ...SAM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 54.6W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 54.6 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to slow down over the north Atlantic around midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Sam is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 44
2021-10-03 16:46:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 031445 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 54.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 180SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 330SE 360SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 54.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 55.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.3N 51.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 42.4N 47.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 47.0N 41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.9N 39.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 360SE 420SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.9N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 400SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 51.5N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 330SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 59.2N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 60.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 17
2021-10-03 16:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031437 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 ...VICTOR STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 40.3W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 40.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Victor is forecast to become a remnant low by late Monday and dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-10-03 16:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031437 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 40.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 40.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 41.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N 43.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.1N 45.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.4N 48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 40.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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