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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 19A
2020-10-09 13:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 091159 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...RAINBANDS OF DELTA SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 93.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Mouth of the Pearl River Louisiana including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of High Island to Sargent Texas * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 93.8 West. Delta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today followed by a north-northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move inland within the hurricane warning area this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 1-3 ft It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas later today. RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 15
2020-10-09 10:38:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 090837 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...WEAKLY NORBERT STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 106.0W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Norbert is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday and dissipate by Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-10-09 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090837 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.4N 106.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.9N 106.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 18A
2020-10-09 07:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 090552 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...MAJOR HURRICANE DELTA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 93.6W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of High Island to Sargent Texas * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 93.6 West. Delta is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast during the next few hours, followed by a north-northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on today, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible overnight. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). NOAA buoy 42002 near Delta's eastern eyewall recently reported a sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a wind gust to 99 mph (159 km/h). The buoy also reported a significant wave height of about 35 feet (almost 11 meters). The minimum central pressure based on data by from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 953 mb (28.14 inches). NOAA buoy 42002 very near the center of Delta also recently reported a minimum pressure of 953 mb (28.14 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 1-3 ft It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas later today, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight. RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding. As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid- Atlantic this weekend. TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes today over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 14
2020-10-09 04:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 090239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...DISORGANIZED NORBERT REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 106.0W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. The depression is currently stationary. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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