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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-13 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 130236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS... ...FORECAST TO MOVE WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 112.9W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 112.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a west-northwest or northwest motion is expected for the next few days Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Sunday, and further gradual strengthening is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-13 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 130236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.9W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.9W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.5N 113.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 116.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 119.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-13 04:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130234 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...SALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 82.9W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 82.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north- northwest is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will investigate Sally overnight. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible through early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the southeast of the center. A wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported in Key West, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border, including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL, including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible within the watch areas by Monday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across the lower Florida Keys overnight. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible over southern Florida and the Florida Keys through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected along the west coast of Florida through Sunday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across the Florida Panhandle, and 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches over the Central Gulf Coast from Sunday into the middle of next week, with 3 to 6 inch rainfall amounts possible over inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system that will continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban, and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to moderate flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells will spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado is possible tonight along the south Florida Gulf Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 24
2020-09-13 04:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 130233 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RENE WEAKENS AND IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 46.4W ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 46.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, and a slow westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the system is forecast to move west-southwestward. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Rene should slowly weaken over the next few days and is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-13 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 520 WTNT24 KNHC 130233 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 82.9W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 82.9W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 82.4W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.0N 84.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.7N 86.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N 87.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.8N 88.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.1N 89.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 82.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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