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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-09 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 106.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-09 16:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 091436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 ...ELIDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 105.4W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 105.4 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Some weakening could begin late Tuesday or Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-09 16:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-09 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 303 WTPZ34 KNHC 090840 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 104.1W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 104.1 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to continue on a west-northwestward heading for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane within the next two days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-09 10:38:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090838 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 104.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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