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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 17A
2020-08-01 13:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011151 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...RAGGED EYE OF ISAIAS NEAR EASTERN ANDROS ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 77.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM S OF NASSAU BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 77.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over Andros Island in the Northwestern Bahamas this morning and continue to move near or over the rest of Northwestern Bahamas later today, and move near the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft was 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the Northwestern Bahamas later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. From Friday night through Tuesday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 17
2020-08-01 10:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010851 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...CENTER OF ISAIAS APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 77.1W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF NASSAU ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 77.1 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the Central Bahamas this morning, near or over the Northwestern Bahamas later today and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Central Bahamas and will spread over the Northwestern Bahamas later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. From Friday night through Tuesday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-08-01 10:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 010851 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 77.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 70SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 45SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 77.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 76.6W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.3N 79.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.6N 79.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.1N 80.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.2N 79.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.0N 77.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 41.5N 71.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 77.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-01 10:31:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010831 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 21.6W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 21.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by Saturday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move north of the Cabo Verde Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-01 10:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010831 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 21.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 21.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 21.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.2N 23.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 21.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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