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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-09 22:56:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092055 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS FORMED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 74.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, and move inland over the northeast United States on Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along and near the track of Fay across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Friday and spread northward through the warning area Friday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-07-09 22:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 092055 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 74.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 74.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 74.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 74.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 13
2020-07-09 22:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 092036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 111.1W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A gradual turn to the west is forecast to occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. A weakening trend should then begin by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-07-09 22:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 092036 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.1W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 135SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.1W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.7N 112.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.7N 115.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.5N 117.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 22.3N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 12
2020-07-09 16:42:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091442 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 110.2W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 110.2 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A gradual turn to the west should occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. A weakening trend should then begin by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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