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Tropical Storm LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2016-09-23 10:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 230855 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0900 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm LISA (AT3/AL132016)

2016-09-23 10:55:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LISA FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 23 the center of LISA was located near 21.8, -35.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm LISA Public Advisory Number 15

2016-09-23 10:55:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230854 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 ...LISA FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 35.7W ABOUT 860 MI...1390 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 35.7 West. Lisa is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a motion toward the northwest or west-northwest is forecast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lisa could become a remnant low over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Advisory Number 15

2016-09-23 10:55:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230854 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0900 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 35.7W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 35.7W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 35.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.7N 36.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.6N 38.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.6N 40.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.1N 41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 35.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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