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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-09-23 04:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230238 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 Lisa continues to struggle in the face of strong deep-layer shear. Although the cyclone continues to pulsate convection, several microwave passes between 1900 and 2100 UTC indicate that the center has become somewhat more removed from the deepest convection since this afternoon. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt, in line with decreased Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A 2344 UTC ASCAT-B pass missed the center of Lisa, but showed that 35 kt winds are present 100-150 nm NE of the presumed center. Lisa is forecast to remain in a high shear and increasingly dry environment, so further weakening seems inevitable. The main question is how quickly will the deep convection cease to exist. The GFS and HWRF both show mid- to upper-level dry air cutting over the circulation in about 36 to 48 hours, suggesting a complete lack of deep convection in those models at that time. The official forecast now calls for Lisa to become post tropical within 48 hours, before being absorbed by an approaching front after 96 hours. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning overall. Lisa continues to move toward the northwest, or 320 degrees, at a rather uncertain 8 kt. A lack of microwave or scatterometer data over the center since 2100 UTC has made the center difficult to locate and introduces some uncertainty to the forecast. Regardless, Lisa should continue moving northwestward around a low- to mid-level ridge, located east of the Azores, before recurving ahead of an approaching front. The first 48 hours of the forecast are near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. The 72 and 96 hour points incorporate guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 21.3N 35.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 22.4N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 23.6N 37.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 24.7N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 26.2N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 30.5N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 35.5N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2016-09-23 04:37:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 230237 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-23 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LISA WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 22 the center of LISA was located near 21.3, -35.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm LISA Public Advisory Number 14
2016-09-23 04:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230236 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 ...LISA WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 35.2W ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 35.2 West. Lisa is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Lisa is forecast to become a tropical depression by Saturday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Advisory Number 14
2016-09-23 04:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230236 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 35.2W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 35.2W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 34.8W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.4N 36.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.6N 37.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.7N 39.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.2N 40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 35.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 35.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/ZELINSKY
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