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Tropical Storm LISA Graphics
2016-09-22 23:12:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 20:36:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 21:06:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-09-22 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 222033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 2100 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-22 22:34:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LISA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 22 the center of LISA was located near 20.7, -34.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm LISA Public Advisory Number 13
2016-09-22 22:34:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 222033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016 ...LISA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 34.5W ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 34.5 West. Lisa is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lisa is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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lisa
Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Advisory Number 13
2016-09-22 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 222033 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 2100 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 34.5W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 34.5W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 34.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.8N 35.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.2N 37.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 20SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.4N 38.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 40.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.5N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 34.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 42.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 34.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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