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Tropical Storm LISA Graphics

2016-09-21 11:12:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Sep 2016 08:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Sep 2016 09:06:07 GMT

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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Discussion Number 7

2016-09-21 10:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210833 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 Lisa's cloud pattern has gradually become better organized into a comma-like shape, although the system still appears to be somewhat elongated from southwest to northeast. Upper-level outflow remains weak over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB yield an intensity estimate of 45 kt, and that value is used for the advisory. The storm has less than 24 hours before west-southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough near 40W-50W longitude becomes prohibitively large for strengthening. Therefore, some slight additional intensification could occur today, but beyond 24 hours Lisa is forecast to steadily weaken. By days 4-5, although the shear is predicted to weaken when Lisa moves under the trough axis, the cyclone should have been disrupted too much by the earlier hostile environment to make a recovery. The official forecast is close to the LGEM guidance through 48 hours and a little below that model thereafter. The center is not easy to locate and the initial motion is a rather uncertain 315/8 kt, which is partially based on continuity from earlier estimates. A weak mid-tropospheric ridge to the north and northeast of Lisa should maintain a generally northwestward motion through 72 hours or so. Later in the forecast period, an approaching trough in the westerlies, which is also expected to accelerate Karl to the northeast, should cause Lisa to turn northward over the eastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to a consensus of the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 17.5N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 18.2N 33.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 19.1N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 20.1N 35.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 21.3N 37.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 24.1N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 27.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z 32.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Summary for Tropical Storm LISA (AT3/AL132016)

2016-09-21 10:33:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LISA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 21 the center of LISA was located near 17.5, -32.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Advisory Number 7

2016-09-21 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210832 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 32.2W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 32.2W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 31.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.2N 33.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.1N 34.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.1N 35.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.3N 37.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.1N 40.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 32.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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