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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-09-20 22:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202041 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 31.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 31.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 30.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.2N 32.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 33.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 35.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.7N 39.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.2N 42.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 29.2N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 31.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm LISA Graphics
2016-09-20 17:07:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 14:52:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 15:07:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-09-20 17:04:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201503 CCA TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 CORRECTED LISA TO BE TWELFTH NAMED STORM The cloud pattern of the cyclone has steadily improved, with long curved bands having developed in the northern semicircle since the previous advisory. Although Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB were 30 kt at 1200Z, recent UW-CIMSS ADT values have increased to 35 kt and AMSU intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt. Therefore the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt, which is a compromise of these estimates, making the cyclone the twelfth named storm of the 2016 hurricane season. Visible satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Lisa is now moving northwestward or 305/10 kt. Water vapor imagery and satellite-derived winds indicate that a large mid-latitude trough extends from near the Canary Islands southwestward into the tropics, which has created a break in the subtropical ridge along 30W-40W longitude. Lisa is forecast to move generally northwestward toward the break in the ridge for the next 4 days, followed by a northward turn as the cyclone moves around the western periphery of the ridge axis. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement on this track scenario, and the new NHC forecast track is just a little to the right of the previous advisory track, mainly to account for the more northward initial position, and lies close to the consensus model TVCN. Lisa has about 48 hours remaining to strengthen while the vertical wind shear and upper-level outflow pattern remain favorable, and sea-surface temperatures are above 27 deg C. However, a marginally moist mid-level environment and the large size of the cyclone are expected to prevent any rapid strengthening from occuring. After that time, the atmosphere is expected to become quite hostile, characterized by southwesterly shear of 25-30 kt and much drier mid-level air, resulting in steady weakening from 72-120 hours. Although the dynamical guidance continues to forecast some relaxation of the shear toward the end of the period, the cyclone will likely be too degraded to recover. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 48 hours, and then lies closer to the LGEM guidance after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.3N 30.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 16.2N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 17.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 18.2N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 19.1N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 21.7N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 24.5N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 28.3N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-20 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LISA OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 20 the center of LISA was located near 15.3, -30.4 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm LISA Public Advisory Number 4
2016-09-20 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LISA OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 30.4W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 30.4 West. Lisa is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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