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Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Graphics
2016-09-25 05:12:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 02:41:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 03:06:11 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2016-09-25 04:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 250240 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 No deep convection was observed near the center of Lisa between 1200 UTC yesterday and 0200 UTC today. Although one small areas of convection has tried to develop since then, it is insufficient to meet the organized deep convection requirement for a tropical cyclone. Yesterday's overnight burst of convection seems to have been supported in part by an upper level low, however Lisa has now moved farther to the west of that feature. In the absence of any other synoptic-scale forcing, the redevelopment of widespread deep convection is unlikely. No new scatterometer data is available tonight, so the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. Without any convection to maintain the circulation, Lisa should gradually spin down over the next day or so before dissipating ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The low-level remnants of Lisa are moving around a high pressure system centered near the Azores. The global models are in good agreement that this high will move retreat eastward over the next day or so, which should cause Lisa to turn toward the north in 12-24 hours. A turn toward the north-northeast ahead of the approaching front is possible before the circulation dissipates entirely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 25.8N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/1200Z 27.2N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0000Z 29.3N 42.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 31.4N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2016-09-25 04:39:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 250239 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/ZELINSKY
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-25 04:39:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL LISA LACKS DEEP CONVECTION... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 24 the center of LISA was located near 25.8, -40.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Public Advisory Number 22
2016-09-25 04:39:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250238 TCPAT3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 ...POST-TROPICAL LISA LACKS DEEP CONVECTION... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 40.8W ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lisa was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 40.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north with little change in forward speed is expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast for the next 48 hours and the low-level remnants of Lisa are expected to dissipate within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT2, WMO header FZNT02 KNHC, and available on the Web at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. $$ Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky
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