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Tropical Depression LISA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-09-24 10:59:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240858 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 A strong burst of convection has recently formed in the northeastern quadrant of Lisa. Overall, however, the system looks less organized than it did yesterday, with the low-level circulation becoming elongated from north to south. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt in agreement with the TAFB satellite classification. Although there is only limited skill in forecasting deep convection, this burst is expected to be ephemeral due to strong shear and dry air aloft. Thus, Lisa is still forecast to be a remnant low by this evening. The global models show Lisa weakening and opening up into a trough within 2 days, and so will the NHC prediction. The initial motion is a bit faster than earlier, now 315/08. Lisa, or its remnants, are still forecast to move west-northwestward, with a gradual turn toward the north in a day or two while it moves around the periphery of the subtropical high centered near the Azores. The official forecast is close to the previous one and the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 23.8N 37.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 24.6N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/0600Z 26.0N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z 28.0N 42.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2016-09-24 10:58:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 240858 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0900 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Depression LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-24 10:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LISA SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 24 the center of LISA was located near 23.8, -37.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression LISA Public Advisory Number 19
2016-09-24 10:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240858 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 ...LISA SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 37.9W ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lisa was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 37.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed is expected later today, before a turn back toward the northwest and then north on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lisa is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression LISA Forecast Advisory Number 19
2016-09-24 10:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240857 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0900 UTC SAT SEP 24 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 37.9W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 37.9W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 37.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.6N 39.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 41.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 28.0N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 37.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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