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Summary for Tropical Storm LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-23 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LISA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 23 the center of LISA was located near 22.2, -36.3 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm LISA Public Advisory Number 16
2016-09-23 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 231432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 ...LISA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 36.3W ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 36.3 West. Lisa is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion with a faster forward speed is expected to continue through Saturday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lisa is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight and become a remnant low this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km), mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Advisory Number 16
2016-09-23 16:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 231431 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 36.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 36.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 36.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.1N 37.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.2N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.4N 41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.4N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 36.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm LISA Graphics
2016-09-23 10:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2016 08:55:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2016 08:55:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-09-23 10:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230855 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 The center of Lisa has become fully exposed due to strong shear, like so many Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2016. Some convection remains, although well away from the center, in the northern semicircle. The initial wind speed is reduced to 35 kt, which is on the high side of the latest Dvorak estimates. Very strong shear should cause further weakening, along with marginal SSTS and increasingly dry air aloft. Deep convection will likely be struggling in that environment within 24 hours, and the new forecast has Lisa becoming a remnant low in 36 hours. Most of the global models now show Lisa decaying to a trough in 3 to 4 days before it gets absorbed by a cold front, but either way it should be a weak system by then. Lisa continues moving northwestward at about 8 kt. A track toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected for the next couple of days while the system moves around the subtropical ridge. Afterward the post-tropical cyclone should turn northward as it gets caught up in southerly flow ahead of Karl. The guidance has shifted westward on this cycle, possibly due to a weaker Lisa being steered more by the low-level subtropical ridge. Thus, the official forecast is moved westward as well, near or just west of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 21.8N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 22.7N 36.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 23.6N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 24.6N 40.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0600Z 26.1N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 30.5N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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