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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-09-28 10:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 002 WTNT42 KNHC 280832 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 Kirk is a highly sheared cyclone with most of the associated weather well east of the center. Despite the lack of organization of the cloud pattern, a reconnaissance plane a few hours ago, reported winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Another plane will be investigating Kirk early this morning and will determine how much the cyclone has weakened. The upper-level winds are highly unfavorable across the entire Caribbean basin, and the most likely scenario is for Kirk to open up into a trough sooner rather than later as indicated by most of the global models. The NHC forecast keeps the cyclone for another 24 hours, but dissipation could occur much earlier. Satellite imagery, radar from Martinique, and plane fixes indicate that Kirk jogged toward the west-southwest earlier. This could be an indication that the center is becoming less defined, but the bottom line is that the system as a whole is expected to move westward about 10 kt since it is embedded within the trade winds. This is the solution provided by most of the models, which all show a weakening trough propagating westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to bear in mind that most of the weather associated with Kirk is displaced to the east of the center. These winds and rains are still likely to continue spreading westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning area for the next several hours. Higher winds are anticipated especially over elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 13.2N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 13.2N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-09-28 10:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 870 FONT12 KNHC 280832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT LUCIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT VINCENT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-28 10:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BUT ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 28 the center of Kirk was located near 13.2, -62.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-09-28 10:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 713 WTNT22 KNHC 280831 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 62.5W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 62.5W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.2N 64.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 62.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 18
2018-09-28 10:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 712 WTNT32 KNHC 280831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 ...KIRK MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BUT ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 62.5W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines These watches and warnings will likely be gradually discontinued later today. Interest elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 62.5 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, Kirk's center, or its remnants, will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the next 2 or 3 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today or Saturday, and then degenerate into a trough of low pressure. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still occurring over portions of the warning area and should continue to spread across the remainder of the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next several hours. Locally higher winds are likely atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches today and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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