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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-29 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 292033 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 50.4W ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 50.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A general northward motion at a slower forward speed, with some wobbles to the east and west, is expected through Wednesday, keeping the depression over the central Atlantic during the upcoming week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. The depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-29 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 288 FONT15 KNHC 292033 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-29 22:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 076 WTNT25 KNHC 292032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 50.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 50.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.1N 49.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.3N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.5N 49.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.8N 49.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.4N 50.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.4N 51.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 33.7N 52.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 50.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 16A
2021-08-29 19:53:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 586 WTPZ34 KNHC 291753 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 107.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning south of Escuinapa and has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Escuinapa to Altata. The Hurricane Watch from north of Altata to Topolobampo has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Escuinapa to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 107.3 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to continue tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland sooner than forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 14A
2021-08-29 19:52:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 100 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 90.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located by NWS Doppler radar near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 90.3 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a slightly slower northwestward motion should continue through this evening. A turn toward the north should occur by Monday morning, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana this afternoon and tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, however Ida is forecast to remain a hurricane through late tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). A Florida Coastal Monitoring Observation Tower at South Lafourche Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 70 mph (113 km/h) and a wind gust of 102 mph (164 km/h). A sustained wind of 47 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (102 km/h) were recently reported at Lakefront Airport in New Orleans. A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana, recently reported a water level of 6.8 feet above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.46 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...8-12 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...8-12 ft Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...5-8 ft Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...5-8 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft East of Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion Bay...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana through this afternoon. Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane Warning area over southeastern Louisiana through tonight. Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi tonight and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the southeast Louisiana coast this morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later today into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast early Monday and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, tonight through Monday night. Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash and riverine flooding. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday. SURF: Swells will affect the northern Gulf coast through early Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan
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