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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-08-12 16:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 121430 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 30N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-08-12 13:48:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 542 WTNT31 KNHC 121148 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVING BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 74.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 80 MI...175 KM NE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 74.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend. Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning later today. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-12 10:43:13| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
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Tropical Storm Linda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-12 10:40:23| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021
Tropical Storm Linda Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-12 10:39:55| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...LINDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... Location: 14.1°N 107.1°W Max sustained: 70 mph Moving: WNW at 6 mph Min pressure: 993 mb Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
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