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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-11 05:25:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110325 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 15...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Corrected direction of motion in the second paragraph. Tracking the center of Kevin this evening has been a challenge, as multiple low-level swirls appear to be rotating cyclonically around a broader mean circulation. The deeper convection remains mostly south of the estimated circulation center, though some cooler cloud tops did attempt to build northward, following a mesovortex seen on visible satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 0000 UTC were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was hovering between these values at 42 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates given the earlier ASCAT data. The initial motion is estimated at 320/7 kt, attempting to follow the mean center that has several mesovorticies rotating around. A general northwest to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue over the next several days as the large cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its northeast. The latest track guidance was a bit more poleward compared to the previous cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit more poleward in the short term, choosing to remain close to the track guidance consensus. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear continues to keep Kevin's deepest convection downshear in the southern semicircle of the large circulation envelope. Over the next 24 hours, Kevin will also be crossing a sharp sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient, with sub 26 C SSTs not far away to the north. As the cyclone moves over these progressively cooler waters, gradual weakening should commence. Simulated IR brightness temperature data from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kevin will lose its remaining organized convection by 48-60 hours, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows Kevin becoming a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 19.5N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.7N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 23.0N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 24.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 25.1N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 26.3N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 28.4N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 6
2021-08-11 04:58:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110258 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND OVER HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 66.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located by the San Juan NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 66.8 West. Fred is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur early Wednesday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing during the next few days. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass near the southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast overnight before Fred reaches eastern Dominican Republic Wednesday morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h) was recently measured by a Weatherflow observing site in Las Mareas along the south-central coast of Puerto Rico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-11 04:57:46| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-11 04:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110255 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 Data from satellites, the San Juan NOAA Doppler weather radar, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the low-level circulation has become better defined since the previous advisory and,thus, the disturbance has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Fred. Although the surface and low-level circulations are vertically aligned, radar data indicate that the mid-level circulation is still tilted about 40 n mi to the south. However, that mid-level feature has been steadily gaining ground from its earlier 100-nmi southeastward displacement. Radar Doppler velocity data, aircraft 850-mb flight-level wind data of 43 kt and SFMR surface winds of 33 kt, plus earlier surface observations of sustained 33-kt winds, support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The initial motion estimate is westward or 270/15 kt. However, this should be a short-term motion overnight due to interaction with the mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico to the north. By early Wednesday morning, Fred is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion and pass through the Mona Passage, reaching the eastern Dominican Republic shortly after sunrise. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast by the global models to basically remain static across the central and western Atlantic Ocean for the next five days. Given this pattern, Fred is expected to maintain a west-northwestward motion through 96 hours, remaining just offshore the north coast of Haiti and Cuba during that time. After emerging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on day 4, Fred is forecast to gradually turn more north-northwestward as the cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. The latest NHC track forecast models strongly support this track scenario, although there was a slight northward shift in the guidance envelope on this cycle. The new official track forecast was shifted a little north of the previous one through 72 hours, and then lies down the middle of the tightly packed track consensus models. Conditions remain favorable for some strengthening before Fred reaches Hispaniola in about 12 h, but the intensity likely won't be much stronger than 40-45 kt at landfall. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola on Wednesday should result in some weakening, but tropical-storm-force winds could occur along the the north coast of the island if the center shifts a little more to right of the forecast track. After emerging back over water by late Wednesday, only slow strengthening is forecast in the 36-60-h time period due to westerly vertical wind shear of about 20 kt expected to affect the cyclone. On days 4 and 5, however, Fred is expected to be moving over warmer sea-surface temperatures and into a much weaker wind shear regime, which would favor more robust strengthening. As a result, some of the regional and statistical- dynamical intensity models bring Fred near or to hurricane strength during that time. However, there is uncertainty Fred's structure after interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Cuba, and continued disagreement between the global models on how the upper-level wind flow pattern near the cyclone will evolve, which ranges from favorable anticyclonic outflow to strong southwesterly shear. Given these factors, the NHC intensity forecast was only nudged slightly higher than the previous advisory, and lies between the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and the SHIPS and LGEM models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, and are expected to begin in the Dominican Republic Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next several days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred is forecast to interact with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning Friday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the Panhandle this weekend. However, it is too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of any potential impacts. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 17.4N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 18.6N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 20.9N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 13/0000Z 21.8N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 22.8N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 23.8N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 26.5N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 29.3N 84.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-11 04:54:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 110254 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 2(21) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 4(20) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 2 25(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 10 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PONCE PR 34 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) AGUADILLA PR 34 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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