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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 20
2021-08-04 16:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 041433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 ...HILDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 127.4W ABOUT 1155 MI...1865 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 127.4 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is expected to become a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a remnant low by tonight or on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-08-04 16:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 041433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.7N 128.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 130.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.2N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.7N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 127.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-08-04 16:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 041433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 4 19(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-08-04 10:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040847 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda continues to weaken tonight. For a 12 h period, the low-level circulation was mostly devoid of deep convection, though recently a few convective cells are redeveloping south of the estimated center. Unfortunately, there has not been any recent scatterometer data to help determine the storm's intensity. The current initial intensity of Hilda is set to a possibly generous 40 kt for this advisory, blending the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, in addition to the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate. Further weakening is forecast, as Hilda is now moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 C, though some residual mid-level moisture may allow for sporadic convective bursts to occur for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 hours, the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models all agree Hilda will lose any remaining organized convection and become a remnant low, with this low opening up to a trough this weekend, well east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Now that Hilda is becoming an increasingly shallow cyclone, the storm is beginning to bend slightly to the left, now moving to the west-northwest at 300/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north and east of Hilda is expected to build in further over the next several days, and should allow the cyclone to turn a bit more westward at a slightly faster motion by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one, and remains near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.9N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.4N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.3N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z 22.6N 136.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-08-04 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040840 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 1 16(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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