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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-07-30 22:47:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 302047 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Corrected geographic reference in summary section. ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 125.8W ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 125.8 West. The depression is temporarily drifting toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected by Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several days and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-07-30 22:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 An area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring during the past several days over the eastern Pacific, has developed a well-defined surface center, as indicated in a recent scatterometer overpass, and has acquired sufficient organized convection to be classified as a 25-kt tropical depression. The northwesterly shear which has been curtailing genesis over the past couple of days has diminished just enough to allow the system to become better organized, particularly, in the east and south portions of the cyclone. The depression is embedded in weak easterly steering currents created by a deep-layer cut-off low and associated trough situated along 125W. As a result, the depression is temporarily drifting west-southwestward, or 255/4 kt. Large-scale models indicate that the cut-off feature will lift northward during the next 24-36 hours allowing a mid-tropospheric ridge to build in over the eastern Pacific. Accordingly, the cyclone should track generally westward at an increased forward speed beyond mid period. The official forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the top forecast track performers, HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the multi-model consensus TVCN. Now that the shear is weakening and the upper tropospheric winds are predicted to become more favorable, (easterly, and little more diffluent) steady strengthening is expected while the cyclone traverses deep, warm oceanic temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the IVCN intensity aid and is below the Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical guidance beyond the 72-hour period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.3N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 12.0N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 11.7N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 11.8N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 12.1N 131.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 12.5N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 13.2N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 13.9N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-07-30 22:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 302036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 6 8(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 10N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 120W 34 X 5( 5) 46(51) 22(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 16(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 48(54) 16(70) 2(72) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 12(33) 1(34) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-07-30 22:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago indicated that the area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has strengthened, and is producing 35-40 kt winds on its east side. In addition, satellite images show a fairly persistent area of showers and thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation and the center appears to be fairly well defined in recent visible images. Based on these data, advisories are now being initiated on Tropical Storm Hilda and the initial intensity is estimated to be 40 kt. Hilda is moving westward at about 14 kt and is embedded in the flow on the south side of a sprawling subtropical ridge that extends from the south-central U.S. westward across the subtropical eastern Pacific. A general west-northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or two as the synoptic pattern holds. After that time, a decrease in forward speed is predicted due to a combination of the subtropical ridge weakening and the interactions with the areas of low pressure to the east and west of Hilda. The ECMWF is the slowest model at long range due to it showing the most interaction with the low to Hildas east. The NHC track forecast lies generally near the model consensus and roughly between the GFS and ECMWF models. Hilda appears to be in generally conducive conditions for strengthening with SSTs currently around 28 C, abundant mid-level moisture, and fairly low wind shear. Given that these conditions are expected to persist for another couple of days, steady strengthening is forecast during that time period and Hilda is predicted to become a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours. Beyond a couple of days, however, moderate easterly shear, progressively drier air, and decreasing SSTs should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the intensity model consensus IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.1N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 12.6N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 13.2N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 13.8N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 14.9N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 15.3N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 16.6N 126.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 18.3N 129.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 1
2021-07-30 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 302036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORMS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 113.6W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 113.6 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and a general decrease in forward speed is predicted over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hilda is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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