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Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-10-22 16:53:24| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 22 2021
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Remnants of Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-10-14 04:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140239 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Pamela Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Pamela has dissipated over the mountainous terrain of northern Mexico. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on Pamela. Although the system has dissipated, deep-layer moisture associated with Pamela's remnants will continue to spread over the south-central United States. As a result, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma through Thursday. These rains may contribute to considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. For additional information on the heavy rainfall and flood potential, please consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 27.5N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF PAMELA 12H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Pamela Public Advisory Number 16
2021-10-14 04:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140238 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Pamela Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...PAMELA DISSIPATES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF PAMELA SPREADING OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 101.5W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF LARADO TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Pamela were located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 101.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight and Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants are Pamela are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma through Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the heavy rainfall and flooding potential over the south-central United States, please consult products from your local National Weather Service forecast office. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-10-14 04:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 14 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 140238 PWSEP1 REMNANTS OF PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC THU OCT 14 2021 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF PAMELA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Remnants of Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-10-14 04:38:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140238 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC THU OCT 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 101.5W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 101.5W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 101.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAMELA. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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