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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-06-15 11:16:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 901 WTPZ23 KNHC 150857 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 131.8W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 131.8W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 131.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 9.6N 133.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.5N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.5N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 131.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-15 11:16:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 904 WTPZ43 KNHC 150858 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Organized deep convection has dissipated once again near the low-level center of Carlos, thanks to a combination of very dry, stable mid-level air and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. A blend of the latest subjective and objective intensity estimates supports maintaining the current intensity of 30-kt for this advisory, though this may be somewhat generous given the highest wind retrieval from a partial 0459 UTC ASCAT-A pass was only 26 kt. Carlos is continuing to move steadily to the west-southwest at 245/10 kt. This current motion should continue for the next day or so followed by a gradual bend westward as the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by a large poleward low-level ridge over the north Pacific. The latest NHC track is once again a bit faster and slightly south of the previous forecast, but remains in agreement with the multi-model consensus. The continued combination of very dry 40-45 percent relative humidity and 25-30 kts of southwesterly vertical wind shear will ultimately lead to Carlos' demise, despite the cyclone traversing sufficently warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. Now that convection has dissipated again near the center, without another resurgence, it is only a matter of time before the cyclone degenerates into a remnant low. Investigating simulated satellite forecasts from global model (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) and regional hurricane model (HWRF) output suggests that any additional convective bursts will quickly shear off to the east and not be sufficently organized to maintain the cyclone's identity. Therefore, Carlos is expected to become a remnant low in 24 h, but could occur as soon as this afternoon if convection does not return soon. The remnant low will continue to slowly spin down, likely opening up into a trough by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.1N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 9.6N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 9.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 9.5N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Bill Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-06-15 04:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150238 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bill Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 14 2021 Deep convection has increased in a cluster to the northeast of the estimated center. Scatterometer measurements showed a couple of 40-41 kt vectors over the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. On this basis, the estimated intensity is increased to 40 kt, which makes this the second tropical storm of the season, albeit a rather high-latitude one. The system is in an environment of fairly strong southwesterly shear, but the diffluent upper-level flow has apparently contributed to some strengthening in a seemingly hostile environment. Some additional short-term strengthening could occur but by 36 hours, the cyclone should merge with a baroclinic zone while approaching Newfoundland and become extratropical. This transition is also shown by the FSU cyclone phase analyses of the GFS model fields. Bill is moving fairly swiftly northeastward, or 055/20 kt. The track forecast appears to be straightforward. The flow ahead of a large mid-tropospheric trough near the United States east coast should accelerate the system northeastward for the next day or two, and until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and not far from the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 36.7N 69.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 38.9N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 42.6N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 46.5N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Bill Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-06-15 04:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 150238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Bill Public Advisory Number 3
2021-06-15 04:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150237 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bill Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 14 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BILL... ...LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 69.8W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 69.8 West. Bill is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Wednesday with increasing forward speed. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible on Tuesday, however the system is expected to become a post-tropical low and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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