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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-05-24 04:40:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 24 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 240240 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 0300 UTC MON MAY 24 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ana Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-05-24 04:38:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 24 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 240238 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 0300 UTC MON MAY 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 55.2W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 55.2W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 56.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 41.0N 50.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 55.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ANA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ana Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-05-23 22:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun May 23 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 232043 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Ana Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 PM AST Sun May 23 2021 Other than brief puff of convection late this morning, tiny Ana has been devoid of organized deep convection for several hours. ASCAT overpass data from this morning indicated that the peak winds had deceased to 35 kt. Due to the lack of convection since that time, it is reasonable to assume that the vortex has spun down a bit, and therefore the initial advisory intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. Ana is over cool waters and surrounded by very dry air in the mid-troposphere. The brief convection that did occur today was quickly stripped away, indicating that the anticipated increase in shear has begun. Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation of Ana is approaching a strong subtropical upper-level jet just to its east, which is expected to produce even stronger shear over the cyclone. These conditions should prevent further convection, if any, from surviving, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. What is left of Ana's low-level circulation should open into a trough on Monday as it is absorbed by a large baroclinic zone approaching from the northwest. The depression continues to accelerate northeastward, and the forward motion is now northeastward at 15 kt. An accelerating northwestward motion is anticipated until dissipation as Ana gets caught up in increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 37.5N 57.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 39.4N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-05-23 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 232042 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 2100 UTC SUN MAY 23 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Depression Ana Public Advisory Number 7
2021-05-23 22:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun May 23 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 232042 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ana Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 PM AST Sun May 23 2021 ...ANA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 57.7W ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ana was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 57.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this heading with an increase in forward speed is expected through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Ana is forecast to become a remnant low by tonight and dissipate on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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