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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 42
2020-11-10 21:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 102052 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 Eta's convective structure has changed little since the previous advisory. A CDO-like feature with cloud tops colder than -70C has persisted, with some overshooting tops of -80C to -85C located east and southeast of the center. Recent passive microwave satellite data indicates that Eta is still sheared from the northwest, with an intermittent mid-level eye feature showing up. Satellite classifications have essentially remained unchanged, with SAB reporting 45-55 kt and TAFB reporting 55 kt. The initial intensity remains at 50 kt based on a blend of these satellite classifications and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimates of 45-48 kt. The initial motion estimate is now northward, or 360/06 kt. The biggest surprise is the large eastward shift in all of the NHC model guidance, which was possibly due at least in part to all of the dropsondes that the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft dropped around Eta earlier this morning, All of the guidance is now in good agreement on a broad, deep-layer trough moving eastward across the south-central and southeastern United States, which will erode the subtropical ridge to the north of Eta that has been impeding Eta's poleward progress he past couple of days. This generally northward to northeastward steering pattern is expected to persist through the entire 120-h forecast period, with only slight shifts east or west of he current forecast track due to how vertically deep Eta remains when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Apalachee Bay in a few days. The current forecast track maintains Eta as at least a moderate tropical cyclone through the period, with only a slight bend back toward the northwest when the system is expected to interact with an approaching frontal system. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted about 150 n mi east of the previous advisory track at 96 and 120 hours, and further eastward shifts in the track may be required, closer to the consensus models TCVA/TVCN and NOAA-HCCA. Eta is forecast to remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear environment and over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 36 hours or so. Intermittent entrainment of dry mid-level air should prevent any rapid strengthening from occurring, but Eta could still become a hurricane between in 24 to 36 h before more significant shear begins to affect the cyclone. By day 3 and beyond, increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear combined with cooler SSTs should cause Eta to weaken. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and is a little below the consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, all of which make Eta a hurricane again by 36 hours. Due to the expected northwesterly shear after 36 hours, the 34-kt wind radii were expanded in the eastern semicircle, which is the side of the cyclone where most of the deep convection and associated stronger winds will be located. Given this and the eastward adjustment to the track forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida west coast, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches may be needed tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight, then potentially spread up the west coast of the Florida Peninsula Wednesday through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually along portions of West Florida and the Sun Coast. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 23.2N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 24.1N 84.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 25.6N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 26.9N 84.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 27.9N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 28.7N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 29.1N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 29.7N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 30.7N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 42
2020-11-10 21:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 102050 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 85.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Englewood northward to Suwannee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to Suwannee River Florida * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by satellite and Cuban radar data near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 85.1 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the north or north-northeast is forecast through Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move parallel to but offshore of the Florida west coast on Thursday and move near or over Apalachee Bay Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Thursday morning, and Eta could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Thursday afternoon or evening. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today and tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20 inches. Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday: Portions of West Florida and the Sun Coast, including the Tampa Bay area: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated totals of 4 inches. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually along portions of West Florida and the Sun Coast. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas overnight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area along the Florida west coast by Thursday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 42
2020-11-10 21:49:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 102049 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.1W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.1W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 85.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.1N 84.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 84.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.9N 84.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.9N 84.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.7N 84.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.1N 84.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 29.7N 84.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 30.7N 84.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 85.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-10 21:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 102037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 A central dense overcast has persisted near the center of Theta since yesterday, and although the clouds tops have warmed over the past several hours there remains a distinct curved band feature over the northern portion of the circulation. Water vapor imagery shows the mid- upper-level trough that was over the Azores is beginning to leave the cyclone behind. Based on these factors, and the earlier indications of a compact radius of maximum winds, it appears that Theta has completed a transition to a tropical cyclone. Even though the clouds tops have recently warmed, the overall structure of Theta has not degraded by much since the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 60 kt. The storm is moving 075/12 kt around the north side of a mid-level ridge. This feature should continue to steer Theta in a generally east-northeastward motion for the next few days. Late in the forecast period, the ridge will begin to weaken as another trough approaches from the northwest. This should cause the cyclone to slow its forward motion and begin to turn to the northeast. The latest model guidance has once again slowed down and the new NHC track forecast now lies between the previous one and the various consensus models. Although Theta will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable for the next day or so, which should be supportive of deep convection. Therefore, little change is strength is indicated during that time. Some weakening is anticipated later in the forecast period as the airmass becomes more stable. By the end of the 5-day forecast period, the combination of the cooler waters and an approaching trough should result in extratropical transition. The NHC intensity forecast has changed little from the previous one and remains near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 29.4N 36.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 29.8N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 30.3N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 30.8N 30.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 32.1N 25.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 32.6N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 33.2N 20.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 34.4N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-11-10 21:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 102035 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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