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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-09-24 22:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 242051 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 44.8W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 44.8W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 44.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.7N 48.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.1N 49.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.3N 51.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.1N 52.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 16.9N 55.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.9N 58.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-24 22:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242051 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 64.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 64.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 64.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.4N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 36.3N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 64.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-09-24 16:55:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 241455 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 After rapidly intensifying from a tropical depression to a hurricane over the past 24 hours, Sam is taking a momentary pause from intensification. The structure on visible satellite imagery remains quite healthy, with tightly coiled outer bands and a small but very cold central dense overcast. However, microwave passes at 0957 UTC and 1211 UTC on the 89-91 GHz channels show an erosion of the inner-core structure on the west side, which could be related to the dry-air slots mentioned in the previous advisory entraining into the core, temporarily disrupting the structure underneath the cirrus. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.0/4.0-65 kt and T4.0/4.5-75 kt while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON objective estimates were both at 59 kt. The current intensity is being maintained at 65 kt for this advisory, taking a blend of these subjective and objective estimates. Sam remains a very small tropical cyclone, with the latest scatterometer wind data indicating that tropical-storm and hurricane-force winds have have not expanded much from last night. Sam continues to move just north of due west, but is beginning to gradually slow down at 280/12 kt. Over the next 24-36 hours, Sam is expected to maintain a general west to west-northwest heading but will slow down gradually as the strongest mid-level ridging becomes oriented more to the northwest of the hurricane. This ridge repositioning is thanks in part to a strong deep-layer trough well northeast of Sam that is digging in south of the Azores. Towards the end of the forecast, this trough will cutoff and gradually decay, allow the mid-level ridging to build-in back east as another deep-layer trough becomes established just off the eastern United States coastline. In general, the track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this general solution. However, differences remain in the details between how strong the ridge will be immediately to the north of Sam at the end of the 5-day forecast. The deterministic GFS and Canadian models show weaker ridging that erodes sooner, allowing a bit more poleward motion, while the ECMWF has stronger ridging that places its track on the equatorward side of the guidance envelope. The consensus track aid TCVN blends the aforementioned model guidance and has changed little this cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous advisory. While the shear remains very low over Sam as diagnosed by the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance, the 700-500 mb layer mean relative humidity is a bit on the low side, and could possibly explain why Sam was susceptible to the dry-air intrusion that disrupted the core structure this morning. However, the vertical wind shear is expected to remain very low for the next 48-60 hours, and the hurricane should be able to easily mix out the dry air over the inner-core. The wind field also remains very compact, so once the inner-core closes back off, rapid intensification is expected to resume. The latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Sam becoming a major hurricane by tomorrow and currently has a peak intensity as a category 4 hurricane in 48-72 hours. Thereafter, a bit more vertical wind shear, and the likelihood of eyewall replacement cycles are likely to lead to fluctuations in the intensity that are difficult to predict ahead of time. The current intensity forecast remains close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus guidance. Regardless of the details, Sam is expected to be a significant hurricane through the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 11.8N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 12.0N 45.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 12.3N 47.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 12.7N 48.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 13.1N 49.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 13.7N 50.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 14.6N 52.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 16.4N 54.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 18.2N 57.7W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-09-24 16:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 241444 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 8
2021-09-24 16:44:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241444 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 ...SAM TAKING A MOMENTARY PAUSE IN STRENGTHENING... ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST TO RESUME SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 43.7W ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 43.7 West. Sam is moving just north of due west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a motion toward the west-northwest are expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to resume over the next several days and Sam is likely to become a major hurricane on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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