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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-08-19 16:46:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191446 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A couple of recent microwave overpasses has revealed that the center of Kenneth remains near the northeastern edge of the deep convection. Although the upper-level outflow is well established over the southwestern and western portions of the circulation, it is somewhat restricted over the northeastern quadrant due to about 15 kt of shear as diagnosed by a UW-CIMSS shear analysis. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are around 3.0 (45 kt) from the various agencies, but the initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 40 kt, since I would rather wait to see visible satellite images to get a better handle on Kenneth's structure. Kenneth is moving west-northwestward, 285 degrees, at 14 kt. The tropical storm is moving around the southwestern portion of a low- to mid-level ridge that is located just west of the southern Baja peninsula. Kenneth is expected to reach the western portion of the ridge in about 48 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward later in the period. The track guidance remains in good agreement through 48 hours, but diverges after that time. The latest run of the GFS has shifted a little westward, but remains along the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with the ECMWF along the western edge. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward to be closer to the various consensus aids that have generally shifted in that direction this cycle. The global models predict that the upper-level wind pattern over Kenneth should become more conducive for strengthening over the next day or so. During that time Kenneth will be moving over SSTs of 27 to 28C, which should allow for intensification, and the NHC foreast once again brings Kenneth to hurricane strength on Sunday. After 48 hours, decreasing SSTs should result in gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity foreast is a little above the statistical guidance and ICON consensus model through 48 hours, but is generally close to the HFIP corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 15.8N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 17.0N 126.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 18.9N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.3N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 27.0N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-19 16:46:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.8, -121.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 5
2017-08-19 16:46:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191445 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 ...KENNETH A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 121.8W ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 121.8 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west- northwestward motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Kenneth is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-08-19 16:46:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 191445 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 44(53) 14(67) X(67) X(67) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 10(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) X(17) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 6(22) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-08-19 16:45:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 191445 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 121.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 15SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 121.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 121.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 126.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.9N 130.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.3N 133.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 27.0N 134.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 121.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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