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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-17 10:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 08:43:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 08:43:59 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-17 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 the center of Fred was located near 32.3, -85.0 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 31
2021-08-17 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170840 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 85.0W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 85.0W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.2N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.6N 80.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 85.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSON FRED. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 11 AM EDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2021-08-17 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 170840 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 31
2021-08-17 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170840 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...FRED WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 85.0W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 85.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia today, across the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and Fred is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight and merge with a frontal system on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Today Portions of Georgia and the Southern Appalachians... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Thursday Central Appalachians including portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment today. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across parts of Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southwestern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Depression Fred. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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