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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 18
2021-08-17 22:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 273 WTNT32 KNHC 172056 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 77.9W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from Cancun to Punta Herrero including Cozumel, a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche, and a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya. The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near the northwest coast of Jamaica at latitude 18.4 North, longitude 77.9 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near the northwestern coast of Jamaica for the next few hours. Grace is forecast to move near or over the Cayman Islands late tonight and early Wednesday, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The official reporting station in Kingston, Jamaica, has reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of Jamaica through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area through this evening, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight and into early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected for the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Wednesday night, but tropical storm conditions could begin as early as Wednesday evening. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti...an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas today. This heavy rainfall will likely cause flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba...and additional 2 to 4 inches of rain. Additional heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides. Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3-5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-17 22:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 272 WTNT42 KNHC 172056 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Radar imagery and earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft and ASCAT observations indicate that the center of Grace has been moving over Jamaica. The aircraft and scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 45 kt. Cirrus-level outflow from the system remains quite pronounced, suggestive of weak vertical shear at this time. Grace will be moving over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea beginning later tonight. These waters are of very high oceanic heat content. Although mid-level environmental humidities are shown by the SHIPS diagnoses to be only marginally moist for the next couple of days, other factors should be conducive for strengthening. The official intensity forecast, which shows Grace becoming a hurricane tomorrow, is in reasonable agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. Some slight weakening should occur due to passage over the Yucatan Peninsula, followed by re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche. There is, however, significant uncertainty in the intensity prediction for this latter part of the forecast period. The storm continues on a heading just north of west, or 280/13 kt. A strong 500-mb ridge should be maintained to the north of Grace for essentially the entire forecast period. There is good agreement among the track models on a continued generally westward to west-northwestward motion for the next 5 days. Little change has been made to the official track forecast in comparison to the previous one. The new NHC track is, again, very close to the dynamical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected over portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday night. 2. Heavy rainfall across Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula is likely to cause to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Jamaica through this evening, and over the Cayman Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward from portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the warning area to, possibly, other portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the watch area tonight through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 18.4N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 18.9N 80.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 19.4N 83.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 20.0N 86.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 20.5N 89.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 20/1800Z 21.2N 94.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 21.0N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z 21.0N 103.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-08-17 22:54:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 023 FONT12 KNHC 172054 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 3(38) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) 1(38) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) 1(24) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 55(62) 8(70) X(70) X(70) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 6(31) X(31) X(31) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COZUMEL MX 34 X 6( 6) 71(77) 8(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 41(41) 11(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 13(13) 26(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 2 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 3 27(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 59 38(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GRAND CAYMAN 50 4 71(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MONTEGO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTEGO BAY 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-17 22:53:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 172053 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO INCLUDING COZUMEL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 77.9W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 77.9W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 77.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.9N 80.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.4N 83.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 86.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 92.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N 94.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-17 22:41:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 20:41:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 21:35:35 GMT
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