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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-06-14 04:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140238 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The satellite appearance of Carlos has degraded this evening. A ragged area of deep convection persists near and to the west of the estimated center position, but infrared cloud top temperatures have recently warmed and the system's organization has not improved. Therefore, the initial intensity of Carlos is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. This is consistent with objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates between 35-40 kt, as well as an average of the subjective Dvorak classifications received from TAFB and SAB. Carlos continues to be steered west-southwestward by a mid-level ridge to its north and northwest. This general motion is expected to persist for the next couple of days. Fortunately, the vast majority of reliable track guidance has come into much better agreement for day 3 and beyond, showing the weakening cyclone moving generally westward to the south of a low-level ridge. Substantial adjustments were once again made to the official NHC track forecast beyond 48 h to show a westward to west-northwestward motion on days 3-5, which is consistent with the latest guidance consensus. The updated track forecast lies closer to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and TVCE consensus aids, although it is still somewhat slower and right-of-track to allow for a gradual shift in the NHC forecast. Carlos is forecast to move over warm sea-surface temperatures in an environment with fairly low vertical wind shear for the next 12 h or so. However, surrounding dry air may periodically disrupt the cyclone's convective structure, and thus limit its ability to become more organized and intensify. Therefore, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected. Thereafter, decreasing oceanic heat content and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear within a drier mid-level environment should induce a weakening trend. The latest NHC forecast calls for Carlos to weaken into a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Marginal environmental conditions and continued bouts of dry air will affect Carlos through late week, and it is plausible that Carlos will become a remnant low even earlier than forecast, perhaps by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 11.6N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 11.3N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 10.9N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 10.2N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 10.2N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 10.3N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 11.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 11.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-06-14 04:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 036 FOPZ13 KNHC 140237 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-14 04:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 the center of Carlos was located near 11.6, -127.1 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Carlos Public Advisory Number 6
2021-06-14 04:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140236 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 ...CARLOS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 127.1W ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 127.1 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and Carlos is forecast to become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Carlos is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-06-14 04:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 579 WTPZ23 KNHC 140236 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 127.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 127.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.3N 127.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.9N 128.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.2N 131.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.2N 132.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.3N 133.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 11.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 11.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 127.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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