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Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)

2021-09-19 14:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF PETER FOUND FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 9:00 AM AST Sun Sep 19 the center of Peter was located near 17.6, -56.0 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 3

2021-09-19 14:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 191 WTNT31 KNHC 191247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Special Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...CENTER OF PETER FOUND FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 56.0W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM AST (1300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 56.0 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, Peter is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a slow weakening trend by late Monday and on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late Sunday into Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-09-19 14:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 192 WTNT21 KNHC 191247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.0W AT 19/1300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.0W AT 19/1300Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.2N 57.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.2N 61.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.3N 63.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.6N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 56.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics

2021-09-19 11:08:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:08:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:22:40 GMT

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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-09-19 10:49:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 389 WTNT41 KNHC 190849 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Deep convection has increased since the previous advisory, with the convective cloud pattern having taken on a more curved-band configuration compared to the earlier shear pattern. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing the intensity to 35 kt. In addition, earlier ASCAT passes, which missed the center of circulation, did reveal 30-kt winds west of the center in convection-free areas. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that stronger winds are occurring within the deep convection east of the center, which further supports upgrading the system to Tropical Storm Peter with a 35-kt intensity. The initial estimate is an uncertain 305/13 kt. Peter has made a slight jog to the north-northwest since the previous advisory, but this is likely a short-term motion owing to the center redeveloping farther to the north and east into the deep convection. However, a west-northwestward motion is expected to resume later today. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion through Wednesday as Peter moves around the southwestern periphery of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge. On Thursday and Friday, Peter is forecast to turn northward into a weakness in the ridge induced by the large Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The new forecast track has been shifted slightly to the right or north of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more northward initial position, and lies close to the consensus track models TVCA and HCCA. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours or so as Peter moves over warmer sea-surface temperatures of about 29 deg C. However, proximity to very dry mid-level air and moderate deep-layer southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to prevent any significant or rapid strengthening. By early Tuesday and beyond, slow weakening is expected to begin due to increasing wind shear. The new official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 18.0N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.8N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.8N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.7N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 22.7N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 23.7N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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