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Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-21 04:50:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 02:50:03 GMT
Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
2020-09-21 04:47:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 02:47:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 02:47:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-21 04:47:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210247 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 Satellite and radar imagery shows that the deep convection associated with Beta has decreased considerably since this afternoon. This appears to be the result of dry air entrainment and vertical wind shear. Despite the recent decrease in convective organization, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found SFMR winds of around 45 kt, and there have been a couple of ship observations this evening of winds of 45-50 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity of 50 kt has been maintained. Data from the most recent center dropwindsonde indicate that the pressure is around 995 mb. Beta is forecast to remain within an area of moderate vertical wind shear, and that along with intrusions of dry air are likely to prevent Beta from strengthening before it nears the Texas coast. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength before landfall in about 24 hours. Gradual weakening should occur after the center moves over land, but the weakening rate may be slower-than-normal as a portion of the circulation will remain offshore. In 2-3 days, the system is expected to weaken to a tropical depression, and it should become a remnant low by 96 h as it move farther inland over the lower Mississippi Valley. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS statistical model. Beta has jogged westward this evening, but the longer-term motion estimate is 290/5 kt. There is once again no change the previous track forecast philosophy. The tropical storm is located between a mid-level ridge over Florida and another ridge over the Southern Plains. Beta should move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Texas during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the ridge over the Plains should weaken allowing the ridge to the east to steer Beta northward, and then northeastward near the Upper-Texas coast by mid-week. With the recent westward jog, the new track forecast has been nudged slightly south of the previous track through 24 hours, but is slightly east of the previous advisory thereafter to be closer to the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley where flash, urban, and river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area in Louisiana. These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast overnight and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 27.6N 94.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 28.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 28.5N 96.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 28.8N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/0000Z 29.1N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 30.1N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0000Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-21 04:46:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BETA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 the center of Beta was located near 27.6, -94.5 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-21 04:46:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210246 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 ...BETA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 94.5W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 94.5 West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and will likely move inland by Monday night, and remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas overnight through early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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