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Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-07-30 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 300847 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 3(23) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 3(26) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 2(22) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 1(19) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 13(36) 1(37) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 13(36) 1(37) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 10(43) 1(44) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 1(16) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 6(46) X(46) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 31(42) 4(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 4(32) X(32) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 2(27) X(27) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17) X(17) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 1(18) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 33(48) 3(51) X(51) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) X(21) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 39(46) 11(57) X(57) X(57) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 44(57) 7(64) X(64) X(64) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 6( 6) 44(50) 17(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 8( 8) 25(33) 6(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 3 49(52) 15(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) MAYAGUANA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 28 44(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE BEATA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) PUERTO PLATA 50 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PUERTO PLATA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTO DOMINGO 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONCE PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-30 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300847 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 ...ISAIAS CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 67.9W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 67.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola late today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall in Dominican Republic later today, with re-strengthening forecast on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa Tanque de Agua reported sustained winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph (94 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico overnight. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area by this morning, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches. Puerto Rico and northern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-07-30 10:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300846 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 67.9W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......360NE 60SE 0SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 67.9W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 67.2W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.8N 70.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 90SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.6N 72.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 79.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.3N 80.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 31.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 37.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 67.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-30 07:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STRONG RAIN BANDS FROM ISAIAS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Jul 30 the center of Isaias was located near 16.7, -67.2 with movement NW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-07-30 07:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300537 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 ...STRONG RAIN BANDS FROM ISAIAS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 67.2W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 67.2 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola late today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely when the center moves over Hispaniola with some re-strengthening expected by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. A Weatherflow station on Culebra recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with gusts to 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico overnight. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area by this morning, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Across the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and eastern Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through today. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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