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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 41
2016-10-08 10:59:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080858 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 Coastal Doppler weather radars this morning continue to depict a 40-nmi wide eye with a band of intense convection located in the northwestern quadrant along the coasts of extreme eastern Georgia and South Carolina from Tybee Island northeast to near the entrance of Charleston Harbor. Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance wind data, along with Doppler radar velocity data and surface observations, indicate that hurricane-force wind gusts in excess of 80 kt are occuring along the aforementioned coastal areas. Based on 700-mb maximum flight-level winds of 108 kt, peak SFMR surface winds of 83 kt, and Doppler velocities of 100-102 kt between 8000-11000 ft, the initial intensity will remain at 90 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 015/10 kt. Matthew made a northward jog since the previous advisory, but now appears to moving north-northeastward based on the latest radar and recon fixes. However, the more northward motion earlier has increased the possibility that the center of Matthew's eye will move onshore the coast of South Carolina later this morning or early afternoon as the cyclone turns northeastward ahead of a strong shortwave trough. Regardless of whether or not the center makes landfall, hurricane-force winds in the northern eyewall will lash much of the coast of South Carolina today as the center moves to a position just east of Charleston Harbor in about 12 hours. After that, the models are in fair agreement on Matthew turning eastward through 36 hours as the cyclone briefly gets captured by the aforementioned shortwave trough. However, by 48 hours and beyond, Matthew is expected to turn southeastward and southward as the cyclone moves around the eastern periphery of an amplifying ridge located east of Florida. In the 48-72 hours time period, some erratic motion could occur as Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole briefly undergo some binary interaction before separating by 96 hours. The official forecast track closely follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The vertical wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt by 12 hours, which should induce steady weakening. At 48 hours and beyond, the SHIPS model is forecasting the shear to increase to more than 40 kt, resulting in rapid weakening to remnant low status by 120 hours. However, the shear forecast appears to be overdone since both the GFS and ECMWF models indicate that Matthew and Nicole will both be moving underneath a narrow 200 mb ridge axis, which should act to reduce the shear across the two cyclones in the 48-96 hour period. The official intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN, and maintains Matthew as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains hurricane-force winds, is now moving over the northern coast of Georgia and the southern coast of South Carolina and should spread up the coast during the day. 2. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants of high-rise buildings along the coast are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. 3. The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains offshore. These include the danger of life-threatening inundation from storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from Florida to North Carolina. 4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 32.0N 80.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 32.9N 79.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 33.7N 77.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 33.4N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 32.6N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 29.0N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 26.0N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 25.0N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2016-10-08 10:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 080853 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 2 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 34(36) 18(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 14 22(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 5 64(69) 6(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CHERRY PT NC 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 4 70(74) 8(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 24(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NEW RIVER NC 64 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 6 71(77) 5(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 27(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 39 50(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) SURF CITY NC 50 2 40(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) SURF CITY NC 64 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 60 34(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) WILMINGTON NC 50 3 45(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 85 13(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BALD HEAD ISL 50 10 64(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) BALD HEAD ISL 64 1 35(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) FLORENCE SC 34 65 2(67) 1(68) X(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) FLORENCE SC 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 95 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 26 41(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) LITTLE RIVER 64 4 21(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MYRTLE BEACH 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 47 26(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) MYRTLE BEACH 64 10 20(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 78 6(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) GEORGETOWN SC 64 33 12(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 89 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) CHARLESTON SC 64 47 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 61 X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAVANNAH GA 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 41
2016-10-08 10:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080852 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 ...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MATTHEW LASHING HILTON HEAD ISLAND AND PRITCHARDS ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... ...STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRING IN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 80.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All tropical cyclone warnings have been discontinued south of Altamaha Sound, Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars, and Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 80.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the northeast is expected by this afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move near or over the coast of South Carolina this morning, and be near the coast of southern North Carolina by tonight. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane while the center is near the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Hurricane-force wind gusts are now occurring along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina from Tybee Island, Georgia, to Pritchards Island, South Carolina. The minimum central pressure recently reported by Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft was 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina this morning, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through today. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later this morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Altamaha Sound, GA, to Edisto Beach, SC...6 to 9 ft Edisto Beach, SC to Cape Fear, NC...5 to 7 ft Cape Fear to Duck, NC, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches near and east of Interstate 95 in South Carolina and North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain over central South Carolina, western North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia. Additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected over eastern Georgia. In all of these areas rainfall may result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible today along the coast of North Carolina and northern South Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 41
2016-10-08 10:52:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 080852 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SURF CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 80.5W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 80.5W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.9N 79.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.7N 77.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.4N 75.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.6N 73.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 75.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N 76.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 80.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-08 09:59:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MATTHEW LASHING HILTON HEAD ISLAND AND PRITCHARDS ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... ...STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRING IN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 the center of MATTHEW was located near 32.0, -80.5 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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