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Home › matthew

 

Tag: matthew

Hurricane MATTHEW Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2016-10-05 11:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 09:49:40 GMT

Tags: map potential storm matthew

Hurricane MATTHEW Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2016-10-05 11:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 09:33:27 GMT

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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

2016-10-05 11:09:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 09:08:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 09:05:37 GMT

Tags: graphics matthew hurricane hurricane graphics

Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 29

2016-10-05 11:02:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050902 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 The satellite presentation of Matthew has degraded since its interaction with the mountains terrain of eastern Cuba with the eye no longer discernible in infrared satellite pictures. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Matthew has weakened slightly. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 118 kt and SFMR winds of 109 kt to the northeast of the center. Based on these data the initial wind speed has been lowered to 110 kt. Matthew will be moving over sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius and the shear is expected to remain low during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow some slight restrengthening while it moves through the Bahamas. Increasing shear later in the forecast period is likely to cause gradual weakening. Matthew is moving northward or 350/8 kt. A northwestward turn is expected to occur today as the ridge to the north of Matthew builds westward. This should steer the hurricane through the Bahamas and near the east coast of Florida during the next 48 hours. After that time, the global models turn the hurricane northward, then northeastward when a ridge to the northeast of Matthew shifts eastward and a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the eastern United States. The 0000 UTC GFS has shifted slightly west of the previous run, and is now close to the UKMET and ECWMF tracks. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through 72 hours, and shows a track very close to much of the east coast of the Florida peninsula. Only a slight deviation to the west of forecast track could result in landfall in Florida. The last few iterations of the global models have been trending toward a solution in which the trough is not deep enough to completely lift Matthew northeastward. As a result, the NHC track has been shifted significantly southward at day 5, but it remains well north of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. 4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.1N 74.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.3N 75.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 23.9N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 25.5N 78.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 30.5N 80.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 32.8N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 33.1N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

2016-10-05 10:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 050850 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 10(32) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 5(26) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 7(33) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 8(37) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 7(36) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) 6(39) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) 6(39) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 23(40) 6(46) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 2(19) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) 4(33) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) 2(25) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 20(39) 5(44) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 20(42) 4(46) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 2(18) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 20(47) 3(50) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 2(20) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 18(51) 2(53) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) 1(22) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 15(51) 2(53) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) 1(21) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) 1(23) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 12(50) 2(52) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 39(50) 10(60) X(60) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26) 1(27) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 9(43) X(43) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 41(55) 9(64) X(64) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 5(29) X(29) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 39(51) 9(60) X(60) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 4(24) X(24) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 32(46) 7(53) 1(54) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 36(73) 4(77) X(77) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 27(38) 3(41) X(41) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 31(58) 5(63) X(63) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 2(19) X(19) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 38(45) 27(72) 4(76) X(76) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 23(38) 2(40) X(40) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 14(14) 48(62) 22(84) 2(86) X(86) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 24(53) 2(55) X(55) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) 2(33) X(33) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 14(14) 48(62) 22(84) 2(86) X(86) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 24(53) 2(55) X(55) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) 1(32) X(32) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) 49(76) 13(89) 1(90) X(90) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) 17(61) 1(62) X(62) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 14(38) 1(39) X(39) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 41(44) 38(82) 7(89) 1(90) X(90) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 15(15) 38(53) 10(63) X(63) X(63) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 8(41) X(41) X(41) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 4( 4) 45(49) 28(77) 6(83) 1(84) X(84) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 19(19) 31(50) 5(55) 1(56) X(56) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) MIAMI FL 34 X 4( 4) 41(45) 25(70) 5(75) 1(76) X(76) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 16(16) 24(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 12(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 12(12) 23(35) 9(44) 2(46) X(46) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 26(36) 11(47) 3(50) X(50) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 12(35) 3(38) X(38) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 19(42) 4(46) X(46) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 22(32) 4(36) 1(37) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 8( 8) 67(75) 19(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 40(40) 33(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 19(19) 31(50) 5(55) X(55) X(55) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 67(69) 27(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 27(27) 56(83) 3(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 9( 9) 54(63) 3(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) ANDROS 34 3 80(83) 12(95) X(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) ANDROS 50 1 48(49) 27(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) ANDROS 64 X 23(23) 32(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) GREAT EXUMA 34 77 22(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 19 72(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GREAT EXUMA 64 4 66(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) SAN SALVADOR 34 56 28(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SAN SALVADOR 50 3 14(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAN SALVADOR 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 70 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GRAND TURK 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 3 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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