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Hurricane MATTHEW Update Statement

2016-10-03 23:01:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 000 WTNT64 KNHC 032100 TCUAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 At 500 pm EDT, 2100 UTC, the government of Jamaica has discontinued the Hurricane Warning, and has replaced it with a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire island. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 23

2016-10-03 22:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 032035 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 Matthew's structure has not changed much today. The most recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found peak SFMR winds of 124 kt on their last pass through the northeastern eyewall, and a peak flight-level wind of 118 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is held at 120 kt for this advisory. The central pressure has been steady around 940 mb for much of the day. Matthew's satellite presentation remains impressive, with a 15 n mi wide eye surrounded by convective tops of -80C or colder and excellent outflow, especially poleward. Little change in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, with the exception of some possible weakening due to land interaction with Haiti and eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. While Matthew is expected to be a little weaker once it moves into the Bahamas as the shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat content decreases a little, it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through the next 5 days, as shown by the global models. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to or a little above the latest intensity consensus through 4 days and is closest to the GFDL model at day 5. Matthew is now moving a little to the east of due north, or 010/06. The short term track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the hurricane will move generally northward for the next 24 to 36 hours around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The new NHC track forecast during this time has been nudged eastward toward the latest multi-model consensus aids, and continues to show the core of the dangerous hurricane moving near or over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday. At 48 hours and beyond, the GFS has trended sharply westward, and now is in agreement with the UKMET and ECMWF in showing the western extent of the Atlantic subtropical ridge nosing north of Matthew across the Carolinas in 3-4 days. This results in Matthew taking a more northwesterly track across the Bahamas, and closer to the Florida peninsula during this time. The UKMET is farthest west, with a track over the east coast of Florida and into South Carolina in 4-5 days. The GFS, ECMWF, and the GFDL model are a little farther east and remain close to but offshore of Florida. The GFDL and GFS are close to southeastern North Carolina by day 5, while the ECMWF is slower. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend. While there remains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long range, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast has increased. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 16.3N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 17.4N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.0N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 22.8N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 78.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 23

2016-10-03 22:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 032032 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 ...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 74.7W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island, and a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 74.7 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti tonight, move near eastern Cuba late Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, the southeastern Bahamas late Tuesday, and the central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti this evening, reach eastern Cuba tonight, the southeastern Bahamas early Tuesday, and the central Bahamas Tuesday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...2 to 4 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

2016-10-03 19:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2016 17:51:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2016 15:04:37 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-10-03 19:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF HAITI... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 the center of MATTHEW was located near 15.9, -74.8 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

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