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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 21
2016-10-03 10:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030850 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... ...NOAA BUOY REPORTS MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 943 MB IN THE EYE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 74.9W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 74.9 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from NOAA buoy 42058 is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti later today and eastern Cuba tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area beginning today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the southeastern Bahamas early Tuesday with hurricane conditions expected by late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late today. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches. Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands. Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts around 5 inches. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 21
2016-10-03 10:50:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 03 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 030849 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC MON OCT 03 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN... GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 74.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 74.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.2N 74.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.9N 74.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 74.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 74.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.6N 75.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 27.6N 76.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 30.8N 77.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 74.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics
2016-10-03 07:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2016 05:49:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2016 03:04:36 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-03 07:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF MATTHEW PASSING OVER A NOAA BUOY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 the center of MATTHEW was located near 14.9, -75.0 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 20A
2016-10-03 07:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030547 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 ...EYE OF MATTHEW PASSING OVER A NOAA BUOY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 75.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of the small eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 75.0 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti Monday night. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA data buoy 42058 reported peak sustained winds of 78 mph (126 km/h) with a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h) during the past hour. The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches). NOAA buoy 42058 recently reported a pressure of 957 mb (28.25 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti on Monday night, and eastern Cuba Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti Monday and eastern Cuba by Monday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area beginning on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the southeastern Bahamas Monday night with hurricane conditions expected Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Monday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches. Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands. Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts around 5 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over northern Colombia through tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
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