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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-10-03 05:30:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MATTHEW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 the center of MATTHEW was located near 14.7, -75.0 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 20

2016-10-03 05:30:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030329 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 CORRECTED HURRICANE WATCH AND HURRICANE WARNING SECTIONS ...MATTHEW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 75.0W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas and a Hurricane Watch for the Central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of the small eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 75.0 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti on Monday and into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane into Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA data buoy 42058, located about 20 miles north of Matthew's center, recently reported a wind gust to 67 mph (108 km/h). The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Monday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches. Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands. Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts around 5 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over northern Colombia through tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 20

2016-10-03 05:29:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 03 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 030328 CCA TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC MON OCT 03 2016 CORRECTED HURRICANE WATCH AND HURRICANE WARNING SECTIONS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN... GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 75.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 75.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.7N 75.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 70SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 75.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 74.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 74.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 75.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 27.1N 76.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 30.1N 76.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 75.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

2016-10-03 05:07:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2016 03:03:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2016 03:04:36 GMT

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 20

2016-10-03 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 030257 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 Although an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Matthew this evening has yet to report flight-level or surface winds anywhere close to the 130-kt winds measured in the previous flight, recent aircraft data have indicated that the surface pressure and 700-mb height have both decreased since the previous flight. The eye has cleared out in infrared satellite imagery and cloud tops have cooled around the 8-12 nmi diameter eye. Given the lower central pressure of 943 mb, which corresponds to about 120 kt on the Dvorak pressure-wind relationship, the small eye, and recent NHC objective T-numbers of T6.3/123 kt to T6.5/127 kt, the initial intensity will remain at 125 kt for this advisory. Matthew has continued to meander and wobble over the past several hours, but the best estimate of the forward motion based on recent recon fixes is 360/04 kt. Although some erratic motion could still occur due to Matthew interacting with a large convective complex and mid-/upper-level vortex located about 150 nmi east of Matthew, the cyclone is expected to move in a general northward direction for the next 48 hours or so. After clearing the northeastern coast of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn toward the north-northwest within southeasterly flow between the western periphery of a strong ridge located over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak mid- to upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z UKMET and 18Z GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models now show a weaker trough over the Gulf of Mexico on days 3-5 as a larger storm system currently located over the northwestern U.S. is forecast to not be as strong or as far south as previously expected. This has resulted in more downstream ridging in those models over the southeastern United States, and the model tracks of Matthew have responded by shifting westward. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the west or left of the previous advisory track, mainly to account for the more westward initial position. However, the forecast track remains to the east of the UKMET, GFS, and GFS-ensemble mean models, and lies near the TVCX consensus model. Matthew is forecast to remain in a low vertical wind shear environment for the next 36-48 hours, with the shear reaching near zero values by 24 hours. This condition, along with the very favorable upper-level outflow pattern noted in water vapor imagery, should allow for the cyclone to at least maintain its current intensity, barring the eye making any direct interactions with Jamaica or Haiti. By 48 hours, however, land interaction with eastern Cuba should induce more significant weakening. The official intensity forecast remains near or above the latest model consensus. Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States east coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.7N 75.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 15.7N 75.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 75.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 18.8N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.6N 74.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 24.0N 75.6W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 27.1N 76.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 30.1N 76.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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